Adam's Way-Too-Early 2025 Best Picture Power Ranking (March 2024)

Well yesterday was the Academy Awards so 2023 is (somewhat) in the books. This means it's time to look to 2024 and see what movies will possibly get nominated for Best Picture next year. I am going to limit this to top-15 for right now, ranked by current likelihood to win Best Picture next year. Let's dive in.

Almost A Certainty For Nomination

1. Dune Part Two

Dune Part Two takes the top slot because it is the only movie that is definitely in contention to be released so far. There are a few things going for it that makes it a top-contender, even in the field so far. Villeneuve is in the middle of a historic run of high quality movies without a single bad entry in his filmography. The combined strength of Dune and Dune Part Two could also bolster the film the way that Lord of the Rings: Return of the King was in 2003. On top of that, the film is genuinely one of the best films seen in theaters since the pandemic which is sure to help it. The thing that could harm its performance is if some of the lower films on this list that are big-budget manage to perform well and deliver a theatrical experience. That said, Wonka did not harm Barbie (not that they're the same quality) so we will see.

2. Sing Sing

No list for Best Picture contender would be complete without an A24 film and Sing Sing will likely be their major contender next year. It debuted in 2023 at the Toronto International Film Festival to wide acclaim and Coleman Domingo will be an easy Best Actor contender. This film tells the story of a group of actors in the Rehabilitation Through the Arts program in Sing Sing prison who strive to stage an original production.

3. Blitz

Apple always manages to assemble top level talent for their period pieces and Blitz is no different. Steve McQueen is directing, Harris Dickinson, Saoirse Ronan, and Erin Kellyman star, and it tells the story of people living in London during the Blitz. Easy choice for a nomination here.

4. The Apprentice

Last night's Academy Awards ceremony moved this from "probably nominated" to "Last night's Academy Awards ceremony moved this from "probably nominated" to "Almost a Certainty." The film tells the story of Donald Trump (Sebastian Stan) as he builds his business in the 1970s under the tutelage of Roy Cohn (Jeremy Strong). A movie that vilifies Trump in a year he's up for reelection means that, short of this being a complete misfire, it will be in solid contention for Best Picture.

Probably Nominated

5. Conclave

Fresh off an Oscar win for Netflix's All Quiet on the Western Front, Edward Berger directs Conclave which stars Ralph Fiennes as a Cardinal tasked with finding the next Pope. John Lithgow and Stanley Tucci also star so this film has solid talent behind it. It also comes out in a relatively uncrowded November where it could have staying-power.

6. Juror No. 2

When Clint Eastwood is at the top of his game, he's still one of the best directors working today. Considering the reports that Warner Brothers was not thrilled with the performance of Cry Macho, he's in a situation to prove his overall deal is worth continuing. It also stars Nicholas Hoult, Toni Collette, J.K. Simmons, and Zoey Deutch in a film about a juror on a murder trial who discovers he may be at fault for the victim's death.

7. Flint Strong

I'm a simple man, I see Barry Jenkins wrote a script, I'm instantly interested in the movie. This is a dramatic adaptation of the documentary T-Rex about Claressa "T-Rex" Shields as she trained for the 2012 Olympics. This film stars Ryan Destiny, Brian Tyree Henry, and Judy Greer in Rachel Morrison's (the cinematographer of Fruitvale Station and Black Panther) directorial debut.

8. Furiosa

It's been over a decade since Mad Max: Fury Road came out and George Miller goes back to the action of that universe with a prequel about Furiosa's origin. If George Miller can channel the same energy that made Mad Max: Fury Road a runaway hit, he could be in solid contention for a nomination here.

9. Kinds of Kindness

Yorgos Lanthimos does not let up. Coming off a number of nominations in 2023 he is immediately making an anthology movie in 2024. This movie (in description) seems to be his most "normal" film with three short stories set in contemporary America and stars Emma Stone, Margaret Qualley, Willem Dafoe, Jesse Plemmons, and Hong Chau.

10. Gladiator 2

Ridley Scott has not had the best track record lately but Gladiator 2 could turn it around. With a nearly $300 million budget this could be something truly special.

On The Bubble

11. Joker: Folie a Deux

A $200 million budget on a sequel to Joker that also happens to be a musical does not inspire a lot of confidence in me but, if they manage to make it look $200 million this could be a contender. I'm not overly optimistic though.

12. Wicked Part One

The only reason Wicked Part One is lower than Joker: Folie a Deux is because we've actually seen footage from it and it does not look like anything special. Maybe debuting the trailer at the Super Bowl will give them time to course correct but, again, not holding my breath.

13. Tuesday

Following her performance in You Hurt My Feelings, I've become invested in seeing what Julia Louis-Dreyfus does on the dramatic side of things. Here she plays the mother of a teenager who are forced to confront death when it appears as a talking bird.

14. Here

Thirty years ago Robert Zemeckis, Eric Roth, and Tom Hanks came together and won Best Picture with Forrest Gump. In 2024 we have them coming together again to adapt the 1989 comic of the same name. The comic tells the story of a space over the course of centuries and the film also stars Robin Wright, Paul Bettany, and Kelly Reilly. The fates could be conspiring to something special here.

15. A Real Pain

We round off the list with a movie out of the Sundance Film Festival that was written by, directed by, and starring Jesse Eisenberg. This film is about two cousins who reunite on a tour of Poland to honor their deceased Grandmother when old family tensions reignite. Jennifer Grey and Kieran Culkin also star.