Is The Streaming Bubble Going To Burst?

So today's big (well not biggest news but big in this niche content area nonetheless) was that Disney Animation would no longer be producing long-format content. Effectively this was the announcement that Tiana, the sequel series to the animated film The Princess and the Frog, was canceled since everything else either got released (Zootopia+) or pivoted to a theatrical release (Moana 2).

This actually brings me to a larger topic about Disney and some of the other streaming competitors out there in the face of certain economic headwinds and the fact that the streaming subscriber base may have plateaued: Is the bubble going to burst? I don't mean this to be alarmist but when you look at the upcoming content slated for Disney+ (at minimum) it does not seem like they are making long term plans. Let's break down some of their originals and upcoming projects:

Your Friendly Neigborhood Spider-Man: Season 1 just ended, Season 2 on the way

Daredevil: Born Again: Season 1 within the next 24 hours, Season 2 next year

Wonder Man: Possibly one-and-done

Ironheart: Probably one-and-done

Hawkeye: Rumors of a second season, nothing official

Live Action Remakes (Pinocchio, Lady and the Tramp, Peter Pan): No longer Disney+ exclusive, now theatrical starting with Lilo and Stitch

The Mandalorian: Ended with Season 3, planned Season 4 going theatrical

The Acolyte: Canceled

Andor: Release plan truncated from five seasons to two, season 2 coming next month.

Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Skipped a year, Jeff Kinney intended to adapt all of the books, no news after Cabin Fever

Percy Jackson and the Olympians: Season 2 in production, no release window given

Ahsoka: Season 2 in development, release window unclear.

Skeleton Crew: On the bubble

The Santa Clauses: Probably not getting a third season but I don't think it has been officially canceled.

Ms. Marvel: No Season 2

Moon Knight: No Season 2

She-Hulk: Attorney at Law: No Season 2

Win or Lose: Probably one-and-done

Eyes of Wakanda:  Probably one-and-done

I'm probably missing stuff but whatever, the point is made. After this year, there is really not much content coming to Disney+. The subsidiary studios appear to be dropping all their content as quickly as possible. and releasing the shows in bizarre cadences with the intent to get everything out without stepping on each other's toes. Daredevil: Born Again has a two-episode premiere with one episode per week except the week episodes 5 and 6 come out the same day. Andor is dropping three episodes a night over the course of a month.

There are two ways to read this. One, the higher-ups anticipate a severe economic downturn that could lead to cuts in consumer discretionary spending (i.e. digital libraries of shows) so they'd rather dump it all out while they still have a large number of subscribers. Two, we've reached the next stage of the streaming scam where the service just slows their content mill down to a crawl once they feel they've reached the user plateau. Like a gym membership or any other online subscription service, streamers make their money from people who subscribe to watch something and then forget they have it. Why bother continuing to make content when people aren't watching it anyway?

By the way, both things could be right at the same time. They're not mutually exclusive.