Predicting The Winners At The 97th Academy Awards

Well let's just get right into it, I'm not overly optimistic about my predictions this year because I actually have not seen as many movies that were nominated this year as I would have liked. Here are my guesses regardless.

Best Live Action Short

I haven't seen any of these and we will revisit this at a later date. ShortsTV is running screenings in February.

Best Animated Short

Again, haven't seen any of these and we will revisit this at a later date. ShortsTV is running screenings in February.

Best Documentary Short

Again, haven't seen any of these so we will revisit at a later date. ShortsTV is running screenings in February.

Best Original Song

Like a Bird is going to be the chance for Sing Sing to take home some hardware. El Mal and Mi Camino are going to split the vote for Emilia Perez and I don't think Elton John writing a new song for his own special is going to get him that award.

Best Original Score

Ok so Dune: Part Two couldn't be nominated but what about Challengers? I'm not comfortable giving this to Wicked because a good amount of the look and feel will come from the musical so I'll say Conclave.

Best Sound

This is sound mix and sound editing, not score, song, or anything like that. Of the nominees, the best in this category is The Wild Robot because of how well it plays with silence and naturalistic sounds as well as dialogue. Plus, I don't think it will win Best Animated Feature so voters may award it here.

Best Costuming

My rule with this category is I will always pick the movie that does something fantastical with the costumes so Wicked should win this. I'm not a fan of movies based in the real world getting rewarded for recreating costumes, especially if it takes place within the lifetimes of a good amount of members of the voting body.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

See above in Best Costuming, the same rationale applies for Wicked to win this category as well.

Best Editing

Emilia Perez is fantastically edited, even by musical standards. It's deserving of this award.

Best Production Design

It feels like cheating for Conclave to be nominated here because it's just real places that already exist. Here I think the winner should be Dune: Part Two because the most unique designs had to be designed and showcased.

Best Visual Effects

Best Visual Effects will be this year's Nimora where I go out on a limb and pick a movie that has no chance of winning but should win. That's Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes. It is funny though that two of the five movies nominated were movies where the lead is a talking monkey.

Best Cinematography

Give me Dune: Part Two in this category all day. That movie is absolutely beautifully shot.

Best Adapted Screenplay

It takes a lot of skill to make a riveting musical about the subject matter in Emilia Perez and have it work as well as the movie does. It's going to win this category. This is an underrated category that Dune: Part Two was snubbed in by the way.

Best Original Screenplay

This is where The Substance gets its flowers. I liked Anora but it's not winning this.

Best Supporting Actor

Kieran Culkin is a lock. It's the closest thing to a certainty in this cycle.

Best Supporting Actress

I feel like Ariana Grande got lost and ended up on this nomination list. The winner is going to be Zoe Saldana for her work in Emilia Perez. The Oscar win is going to be a nice notch in the belt for a woman who starred in three of the top five highest-grossing movies of all time.

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet will win the award, not just because of his performance in A Complete Unknown, but also for his performance in Dune: Part Two. Warner Brothers is going to be making a massive push for Dune: Part Two in the technical categories so he will be in voter's faces more than the other nominees.

Best Actress

Karla Sofia Gascon made history today as the first transgender person to be nominated in a major acting category and on March 2nd, she will make history as the first transgender person to win the award. Historically, betting against an actress who can build a narrative around their win has hurt me but she will beat Demi Moore.

Best Director

Villeneuve has now been snubbed twice for Dune movies that were nominated for Best Picture. Also, while I haven't seen Queer but I have seen Challengers and it's a crime that Luca Guadagnino wasn't nominated. I'm curious as to how much the controversy around The Brutalist's AI use harms its chances in categories like this. I think it will be enough to sink Brady Corbet so my pick would be Sean Baker for Anora.

Best Documentary Feature

I haven't seen any of these but I still feel confident I can make a prediction about this. The Porcelain War did exceptionally well on the festival circuit in 2024. It was at SXSW, Sundance, Hamptons, Tribeca, NYFF, and Seattle. If there was a festival somewhere, it got in and was well received.

Best International Feature

Say it with me: "When a movie is nominated for Best Picture and Best International Feature, it wins Best International Feature." Emilia Perez.

Best Animated Feature

Disney, Universal, and Netflix have deep pockets but the small indie hit Flow is going to take home this award in spite of all that.

Best Picture

Now, having seen Emilia Perez and having enjoyed Emilia Perez, I feel like Emilia Perez should win but I think it's going to take home enough wins in other categories that voters will go elsewhere for Best Picture. I've heard good things about The Brutalist and I will (god willing) see it this weekend but it is my pick for Best Picture.