Warner Brothers Shifts Their Release Slate

Continuing the trend of boneheaded decision-making out of Warner Brothers in the face of their merger with Discovery and the ongoing SAG and WGA strikes, it was announced today that they would be following through on their threats and shifting certain parts of their release slate into 2024. The date shifts are as follows:

• Dune Part 2 moves from November 3rd, 2023 to March 15th, 2023.
• Godzilla X Kong: A New Empire moves from March 15th, 2023 to April 12th, 2023.
• Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim moves from April 12th, 2023 to December 13th, 2023.

So let's break down this new mind-numbingly stupid decision. Dune Part 2's original release date was admittedly not the best. It was slated to come out the week before The Marvels and two weeks before The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes. In fairness, The Marvels was a fairly recent delay and was not intended to be on that slot but it is what it is since Dune Part 2 had a six-week exclusive deal for IMAX theaters. This would have given Warner Brothers functionally the run of things on IMAX screens through the end of the year between Dune Part 2, Wonka, and Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom.

The problem is the month of March is just as packed and it is unclear if this exclusivity will continue. Presumably Paramount wants A Quiet Place: Day One to run in IMAX the week before and Disney wants Snow White to run in IMAX the week after and those contracts would have already been in place so it is unclear if Dune Part 2 will have the same run of theaters. If the six week exclusive deal still exists, are they then kneecapping the potential of Godzilla X Kong: A New Empire because that is only four weeks out.

The other big loss of this new date is the awards potential for Dune Part 2. Considering this release date is right after the Oscars next year, it will be ineligible for awards consideration until the awards ceremony that takes place in 2025. The problem with this is that because it is so early in the year, it runs the risk of being forgotten without a robust For Your Consideration campaign in the back half of the year.

This does not take into consideration the other movies in competition with the other shifted films. For whatever reason, Godzilla X Kong: A New Empire has the best date with no competition coming until the first week of May with Deadpool 3 (should it hold this date) and Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim is opening opposite the legacy sequel or reboot of The Karate Kid from Sony which is the week before Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and The Thunderbolts so it is being put out with the intent to fail, unless the studios are colluding on release dates and things are going to shift across the entire landscape.